climate change

Antarctica’s Effect on Sea Level Rise in Coming Centuries

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Esprit Smith

Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.

  

 

Thwaites Glacier. animation shows projections of ice sheet retreat in Antarctica Thwaites Glacier. Credit: NASA/James Yungel

 

 

There are two primary causes of global mean sea level rise – added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers, and the expansion of sea water as it warms. The melting of Antarctica’s ice sheet is currently responsible for 20-25 percent of global sea level rise.

 

But how much of a role will it play hundreds of years in the future?


 

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2018 Fourth Warmest Year in Continued Warming Trend, According to NASA, NOAA

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In 2018, the temperature was 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the average from 1951 to 1980. (Animated GIF) Credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

 

Ahead of tomorrow’s press teleconference on climate change and global warming, NASA just released its 2018 statistics on temperature readings worldwide.

 

Earth’s global surface temperatures were the fourth warmest since 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

 

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NASA, NOAA to Announce 2018 Global Temperatures, Climate Conditions

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Media Advisory: M19-003
NASA, NOAA to Announce 2018 Global Temperatures, Climate Conditions

 

2017_Worldwide_Temperature_Map.jpg
NASA and NOAA are two keepers of the world’s temperature data and independently produce a record of Earth’s surface temperatures and changes. Shown here are 2017 global temperature data: higher than normal temperatures are shown in red, lower than normal temperatures are shown in blue. Credits: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio

 

Climate experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will provide the annual release of global temperatures data and discuss the most important climate trends of 2018 during a media teleconference at 11:30 a.m. EST Wednesday, Feb. 6.

 

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NASA Satellite Finds Unreported Source of Toxic Air Pollution

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Human-made sulfur dioxide emissions from a medium-size power plant
New research has detected smaller sulfur dioxide concentrations and sources around the world, including human-made sources such as medium-size power plants and oil-related activities.
Credit: EPA
 
Data from NASA’s Aura spacecraft, illustrated here, were analyzed by scientists to produce improved estimates of sulfur dioxide sources and concentrations worldwide between 2005 and 2014.

Credit: NASA

Using a new satellite-based method, scientists at NASA, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and two universities have located 39 unreported and major human-made sources of toxic sulfur dioxide emissions.

A known health hazard and contributor to acid rain, sulfur dioxide (SO2) is one of six air pollutants regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Current, sulfur dioxide monitoring activities include the use of emission inventories that are derived from ground-based measurements and factors, such as fuel usage. The inventories are used to evaluate regulatory policies for air quality improvements and to anticipate future emission scenarios that may occur with economic and population growth.

But, to develop comprehensive and accurate inventories, industries, government agencies and scientists first must know the location of pollution sources.

“We now have an independent measurement of these emission sources that does not rely on what was known or thought known,” said Chris McLinden, an atmospheric scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada in Toronto and lead author of the study published this week in Nature Geosciences. 

“When you look at a satellite picture of sulfur dioxide, you end up with it appearing as hotspots – bull’s-eyes, in effect — which makes the estimates of emissions easier.”

The 39 unreported emission sources, found in the analysis of satellite data from 2005 to 2014, are clusters of coal-burning power plants, smelters, oil and gas operations found notably in the Middle East, but also in Mexico and parts of Russia. In addition, reported emissions from known sources in these regions were — in some cases — two to three times lower than satellite-based estimates. 

Altogether, the unreported and underreported sources account for about 12 percent of all human-made emissions of sulfur dioxide – a discrepancy that can have a large impact on regional air quality, said McLinden.

The research team also located 75 natural sources of sulfur dioxide — non-erupting volcanoes slowly leaking the toxic gas throughout the year. While not necessarily unknown, many volcanoes are in remote locations and not monitored, so this satellite-based data set is the first to provide regular annual information on these passive volcanic emissions.

“Quantifying the sulfur dioxide bull’s-eyes is a two-step process that would not have been possible without two innovations in working with the satellite data,” said co-author Nickolay Krotkov, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. 

First was an improvement in the computer processing that transforms raw satellite observations from the Dutch-Finnish Ozone Monitoring Instrument aboard NASA’s Aura spacecraft into precise estimates of sulfur dioxide concentrations. Krotkov and his team now are able to more accurately detect smaller sulfur dioxide concentrations, including those emitted by human-made sources such as oil-related activities and medium-size power plants. 

Being able to detect smaller concentrations led to the second innovation. McLinden and his colleagues used a new computer program to more precisely detect sulfur dioxide that had been dispersed and diluted by winds. They then used accurate estimates of wind strength and direction derived from a satellite data-driven model to trace the pollutant back to the location of the source, and also to estimate how much sulfur dioxide was emitted from the smoke stack.

“The unique advantage of satellite data is spatial coverage,” said Bryan Duncan, an atmospheric scientist at Goddard. 

“This paper is the perfect demonstration of how new and improved satellite datasets, coupled with new and improved data analysis techniques, allow us to identify even smaller pollutant sources and to quantify these emissions over the globe.”

The University of Maryland, College Park, and Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, contributed to this study.

For more information about, and access to, NASA’s air quality data, visit: http://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/

NASA uses the vantage point of space to increase our understanding of our home planet, improve lives, and safeguard our future. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth’s interconnected natural systems with long-term data records. The agency freely shares this unique knowledge and works with institutions around the world to gain new insights into how our planet is changing. 

For more information about NASA Earth science research, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/earth

NASA Study Solves Two Mysteries About Wobbling Earth

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Earth does not always spin on an axis running through its poles. Instead, it wobbles irregularly over time, drifting toward North America throughout most of the 20th Century (green arrow). That direction has changed drastically due to changes in water mass on Earth. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech


Using
satellite data on how water moves around Earth, NASA scientists have solved two mysteries about wobbles in the planet’s rotation — one new and one more than a century old. The research may help improve our knowledge of past and future climate. 

Although a desktop globe always spins smoothly around the axis running through its north and south poles, a real planet wobbles. Earth’s spin axis drifts slowly around the poles; the farthest away it has wobbled since observations began is 37 feet (12 meters). These wobbles don’t affect our daily life, but they must be taken into account to get accurate results from GPS, Earth-observing satellites and observatories on the ground. 

In a paper ‘Climate–Driven Polar Motion: 2003–2015 (PDF)‘ published today in Science Advances, Surendra Adhikari and Erik Ivins of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, researched how the movement of water around the world contributes to Earth’s rotational wobbles. Earlier studies have pinpointed many connections between processes on Earth’s surface or interior and our planet’s wandering ways. For example, Earth’s mantle is still readjusting to the loss of ice on North America after the last ice age, and the reduced mass beneath that continent pulls the spin axis toward Canada at the rate of a few inches each year. But some motions are still puzzling.


A Sharp Turn To The East

Before about 2000, Earth’s spin axis was drifting toward Canada (green arrow, left globe). JPL scientists calculated the effect of changes in water mass in different regions (center globe) in pulling the direction of drift eastward and speeding the rate (right globe). Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Around the year 2000, Earth’s spin axis took an abrupt turn toward the east and is now drifting almost twice as fast as before, at a rate of almost 7 inches (17 centimeters) a year. “It’s no longer moving toward Hudson Bay, but instead toward the British Isles,” said Adhikari. “That’s a massive swing.” Adhikari and Ivins set out to explain this unexpected change.

Scientists have suggested that the loss of mass from Greenland and Antarctica’s rapidly melting ice sheet could be causing the eastward shift of the spin axis. The JPL scientists assessed this idea using observations from the NASA/German Aerospace Center Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, which provide a monthly record of changes in mass around Earth. Those changes are largely caused by movements of water through everyday processes such as accumulating snowpack and groundwater depletion. They calculated how much mass was involved in water cycling between Earth’s land areas and its oceans from 2003 to 2015, and the extent to which the mass losses and gains pulled and pushed on the spin axis.

Adhikari and Ivins’ calculations showed that the changes in Greenland alone do not generate the gigantic amount of energy needed to pull the spin axis as far as it has shifted. In the Southern Hemisphere, ice mass loss from West Antarctica is pulling, and ice mass gain in East Antarctica is pushing, Earth’s spin axis in the same direction that Greenland is pulling it from the north, but the combined effect is still not enough to explain the speedup and new direction. Something east of Greenland has to be exerting an additional pull.

The researchers found the answer in Eurasia. 

“The bulk of the answer is a deficit of water in Eurasia: the Indian subcontinent and the Caspian Sea area,” Adhikari said. 

The finding was a surprise. This region has lost water mass due to depletion of aquifers and drought, but the loss is nowhere near as great as the change in the ice sheets. 

So why did the smaller loss have such a strong effect? The researchers say:

“It’s because the spin axis is very sensitive to changes occurring around 45 degrees latitude, both north and south. “This is well explained in the theory of rotating objects,” Adhikari explained. “That’s why changes in the Indian subcontinent, for example, are so important.””


New Insight on an Old Wobble
In the process of solving this recent mystery, the researchers unexpectedly came up with a promising new solution to a very old

The relationship between continental water mass and the east-west wobble in Earth’s spin axis. Losses of water from Eurasia correspond to eastward swings in the general direction of the spin axis (top), and Eurasian gains push the spin axis westward (bottom). Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

problem, as well. One particular wobble in Earth’s rotation has perplexed scientists since observations began in 1899. Every six to 14 years, the spin axis wobbles about 20 to 60 inches (0.5 to 1.5 meters) either east or west of its general direction of drift. “Despite tremendous theoretical and modeling efforts, no plausible mechanism has been put forward that could explain this enigmatic oscillation,” Adhikari said.

Lining up a graph of the east-west wobble during the period when GRACE data were available against a graph of changes in continental water storage for the same period, the JPL scientists spotted a startling similarity between the two. Changes in polar ice appeared to have no relationship to the wobble — only changes in water on land. Dry years in Eurasia, for example, corresponded to eastward swings, while wet years corresponded to westward swings.

When the researchers input the GRACE observations on changes in land water mass from April 2002 to March 2015 into classic physics equations that predict pole positions, they found that the results matched the observed east-west wobble very closely. “This is much more than a simple correlation,” coauthor Ivins said. “We have isolated the cause.”

The discovery raises the possibility that the 115-year record of east-west wobbles in Earth’s spin axis may, in fact, be a remarkably good record of changes in land water storage. “That could tell us something about past climate — whether the intensity of drought or wetness has amplified over time, and in which locations,” said Adhikari. 

“Historical records of polar motion are both globally comprehensive in their sensitivity and extraordinarily accurate,” said Ivins. “Our study shows that this legacy data set can be used to leverage vital information about changes in continental water storage and ice sheets over time.”

GRACE is a joint NASA mission with the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), in partnership with the University of Texas at Austin. For more information on the mission, visit: http://grace.jpl.nasa.gov or http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace

NASA uses the vantage point of space to increase our understanding of our home planet, improve lives and safeguard our future. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth’s interconnected natural systems with long-term data records. The agency freely shares this unique knowledge and works with institutions around the world to gain new insights into how our planet is changing.

For more information about NASA’s Earth science activities, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/earth

New NASA Web Portal Shines Beacon on Rising Seas

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Fort Lauderdale, Florida, is at risk from rising sea levels. Credit: Dave/Flickr Creative Commons/CC BY 2.0

 

Sea level rise is a critical global issue affecting millions across our planet. A new Web portal developed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, gives researchers, decision makers and the public alike a resource to stay up to date with the latest developments and scientific findings in this rapidly advancing field of study. 

The portal, “Sea Level Change: Observations from Space,” is online at: https://sealevel.nasa.gov/

The portal’s key features include:
 

  • “Understanding Sea Level,” a summary of decades of scientific research that has shaped our knowledge of sea level rise: its causes, including a warming, expanding ocean and melting ice on land; projections of future sea level rise; and ways in which humanity might adapt, largely drawn from NASA data.
     
  • An interactive data analysis tool, launching in mid-2016, that will allow direct access to NASA datasets on sea level. Users will be able to manipulate these datasets to automatically generate charts, graphs and maps of sea surface height, temperature and other factors. The analysis tool will also allow users to make forecasts of future conditions, as well as “hindcasts” — retroactive calculations of past trends and conditions.
     
  • News highlights and feature stories with strong visual elements that explore the findings of sea level researchers in detail.
     
  • An extensive library of published papers on sea level-related topics, hyperlinked to individual citations throughout “Understanding Sea Level.”
     
  • A multimedia section with dynamic still and video imagery, and a glossary of sea level terms.

  • A “frequently asked questions” section maintained by sea level scientists. Users can submit questions to scientists and data managers.


The website is optimized for most mobile devices, including smartphones and tablets.

“Sea Level Change: Observations from Space” is managed by a team led by JPL scientist Carmen Boening. The team is part of the NASA Sea Level Change Team research group. 

“With sea levels rising globally, as observed by satellites over the past decades, sea level change is a hot topic in climate research,” Boening said. “This new tool provides a NASA resource for researchers and a wealth of information for members of the public seeking a deeper understanding of sea level change.”

For more information on NASA’s Earth science activities, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/earth and http://climate.nasa.gov

JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

 

 

 

 

 

NASA Study Finds Indian, Pacific Oceans Temporarily Hide Global Warming

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An Argo float, foreground. The new study included direct measurements of ocean temperatures from the global array of 3,500 Argo floats and other ocean sensors. Image credit: Argo program. (Image Credit: Germany/Ifremer)

A new NASA study of ocean temperature measurements shows that in recent years, extra heat from greenhouse gases has been trapped in the waters of the Pacific and Indian oceans. Researchers say this shifting pattern of ocean heat accounts for the slowdown in the global surface temperature trend observed during the past decade.

Researchers Veronica Nieves, Josh Willis and Bill Patzert of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, found a specific layer of the Indian and Pacific oceans between 300 and 1,000 feet (100 and 300 meters) below the surface has been accumulating more heat than previously recognized. They also found the movement of warm water has affected surface temperatures. The results were published Thursday in the journal Science.

During the 20th century, as greenhouse gas concentrations increased and trapped more heat energy on Earth, global surface temperatures also increased. However, in the 21st century, this pattern seemed to change temporarily.

“Greenhouse gases continued to trap extra heat, but for about 10 years starting in the early 2000s, global average surface temperature stopped climbing and even cooled a bit,” said Willis.


In the study, researchers analyzed direct ocean temperature measurements, including observations from a global network of about 3,500 ocean temperature probes known as the Argo array. These measurements show temperatures below the surface have been increasing.

Maps of temperature trends at four layers in the global ocean show the patterns of heat below the surface, 2003-2012. The warmest water appears at depths of about 330-660 feet (100-200 meters, third panel from the top) in the western Pacific and Indian oceans, left of center. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory

The Pacific Ocean is the primary source of the subsurface warm water found in the study, though some of that water now has been pushed to the Indian Ocean. Since 2003, unusually strong trade winds and other climatic features have been piling up warm water in the upper 1,000 feet of the western Pacific, pinning it against Asia and Australia.

“The western Pacific got so warm that some of the warm water is leaking into the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian archipelago,” said Nieves, the lead author of the study.

The movement of the warm Pacific water westward pulled heat away from the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific, which resulted in unusually cool surface temperatures during the last decade. Because the air temperature over the ocean is closely related to the ocean temperature, this provides a plausible explanation for the global cooling trend in surface temperature.

Cooler surface temperatures also are related to a long-lived climatic pattern called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which moves in a 20- to 30-year cycle. It has been in a cool phase during the entire time surface temperatures showed cooling, bringing cooler-than-normal water to the eastern Pacific and warmer water to the western side. There currently are signs the pattern may be changing to the opposite phase, with observations showing warmer-than-usual water in the eastern Pacific.

“Given the fact the Pacific Decadal Oscillation seems to be shifting to a warm phase, ocean heating in the Pacific will definitely drive a major surge in global surface warming,” Nieves said.

Previous attempts to explain the global surface temperature cooling trend have relied more heavily on climate model results or a combination of modeling and observations, which may be better at simulating long-term impacts over many decades and centuries. This study relied on observations, which are better for showing shorter-term changes over 10 to 20 years. In shorter time spans, natural variations such as the recent slowdown in global surface temperature trends can have larger regional impacts on climate than human-caused warming.

Pauses of a decade or more in Earth’s average surface temperature warming have happened before in modern times, with one occurring between the mid-1940s and late 1970s.

“In the long term, there is robust evidence of unabated global warming,” Nieves said.

NASA uses the vantage point of space to increase our understanding of our home planet, improve lives and safeguard our future. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth’s interconnected natural systems with long-term data records. The agency freely shares this unique knowledge and works with institutions around the world to gain new insights into how our planet is changing.

For more information about NASA’s Earth science activities, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/earth

It’s the Final Act for Larsen B Ice Shelf, NASA Finds

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Antarctica’s Larsen B Ice Shelf is likely to shatter into hundreds of icebergs like this one before the end of the decade, according to a new NASA study. Image credit: NSIDC/Ted Scambos

A new NASA study finds the last remaining section of Antarctica’s Larsen B Ice Shelf, which partially collapsed in 2002, is quickly weakening and is likely to disintegrate completely before the end of the decade.

A team led by Ala Khazendar of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, found the remnant of the Larsen B Ice Shelf is flowing faster, becoming increasingly fragmented and developing large cracks. Two of its tributary glaciers also are flowing faster and thinning rapidly.

“These are warning signs that the remnant is disintegrating,” Khazendar said. “Although it’s fascinating scientifically to have a front-row seat to watch the ice shelf becoming unstable and breaking up, it’s bad news for our planet. This ice shelf has existed for at least 10,000 years, and soon it will be gone.”

Ice shelves are the gatekeepers for glaciers flowing from Antarctica toward the ocean. Without them, glacial ice enters the ocean faster and accelerates the pace of global sea level rise. This study, the first to look comprehensively at the health of the Larsen B remnant and the glaciers that flow into it, has been published online in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.

Khazendar’s team used data on ice surface elevations and bedrock depths from instrumented aircraft participating in NASA’s Operation IceBridge, a multiyear airborne survey campaign that provides unprecedented documentation annually of Antarctica’s glaciers, ice shelves and ice sheets. Data on flow speeds came from spaceborne synthetic aperture radars operating since 1997.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/video/download.php?id=1376&download=hdmov

Khazendar noted his estimate of the remnant’s remaining life span was based on the likely scenario that a huge, widening rift that has formed near the ice shelf’s grounding line will eventually crack all the way across. The free-floating remnant will shatter into hundreds of icebergs that will drift away, and the glaciers will rev up for their unhindered move to the sea.

Located on the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, the Larsen B remnant is about 625 square miles (1,600 square kilometers) in area and about 1,640 feet (500 meters) thick at its thickest point. Its three major tributary glaciers are fed by their own tributaries farther inland. 

“What is really surprising about Larsen B is how quickly the changes are taking place,” Khazendar said. “Change has been relentless.”

The remnant’s main tributary glaciers are named Leppard, Flask and Starbuck — the latter two after characters in the novel Moby Dick. The glaciers’ thicknesses and flow speeds changed only slightly in the first couple of years following the 2002 collapse, leading researchers to assume they remained stable. The new study revealed, however, that Leppard and Flask glaciers have thinned by 65-72 feet (20-22 meters) and accelerated considerably in the intervening years. The fastest-moving part of Flask Glacier had accelerated 36 percent by 2012 to a flow speed of 2,300 feet (700 meters) a year — comparable to a car accelerating from 55 to 75 mph.

Flask’s acceleration, while the remnant has been weakening, may be just a preview of what will happen when the remnant breaks up completely. After the 2002 Larsen B collapse, the glaciers behind the collapsed part of the shelf accelerated as much as eightfold — comparable to a car accelerating from 55 to 440 mph.

The third and smallest glacier, Starbuck, has changed little. Starbuck’s channel is narrow compared with those of the other glaciers, and the small glacier is strongly anchored to the bedrock, which, according to authors of the study, explains its comparative stability.

“This study of the Antarctic Peninsula glaciers provides insights about how ice shelves farther south, which hold much more land ice, will react to a warming climate,” said JPL glaciologist Eric Rignot, a coauthor of the paper.

The research team included scientists from JPL; the University of California, Irvine; and the University Centre in Svalbard, Norway. The paper is online at: http://go.nasa.gov/1bbpfsC.

NASA uses the vantage point of space to increase our understanding of our home planet, improve lives and safeguard our future. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth’s interconnected natural systems with long-term data records. The agency freely shares this unique knowledge and works with institutions around the world to gain new insights into how our planet is changing.

For more information about NASA’s Earth science activities, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/earth.

Let It Go! SMAP Almost Ready to Map Frozen Soil

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SMAP will monitor the frozen or thawed state of the global landscape north of 45 degrees north latitude.
SMAP will monitor the frozen or thawed state of the global landscape north of 45 degrees north latitude. Image credit: UCAR/Carlye Calvin

Those who feel as though they’ve been living in the never-ending winter of the movie “Frozen” this year may be glad to hear that the spring thaw is now typically arriving up to two weeks earlier in the Northern Hemisphere than it did 20 to 30 years ago. But the changing date of the spring thaw has consequences far beyond reducing the number of mornings when you have to scrape off your windshield.

One ecosystem where scientists would most like to understand the effects of changing freeze/thaw cycles is boreal forests, the great ring of green covering the land nearest the North Pole. The forests of Alaska, Canada, Scandinavia and Siberia cover almost 15 percent of Earth’s land surface. The Arctic is warming more quickly than lower latitudes, and the way these forests respond to this rapid change could provide valuable clues about our planet’s warmer future.

But we know very little about how the boreal forests are changing. Millions of square miles have no roads or even villages. “What we have now are very sparse, seasonal measurements from the ground,” said John Kimball, a professor of systems ecology at the University of Montana, Missoula, and a member of the science team for NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, launched Jan. 31. “We do have long-term, global satellite data sets that are sensitive to freeze-thaw, but they tend to be very coarse.” That means each measurement averages the status of a large area. Like a mosaic made of large tiles, these data cannot show much detail.

That’s about to change. By the end of April, SMAP will begin monitoring the frozen or thawed state of the landscape north of 45 degrees north latitude (about the latitude of Minneapolis) every two days. The primary mission of SMAP is to measure the amount of moisture in the top few inches of soil globally, but it also detects whether that moisture is frozen or in liquid form. SMAP’s radar measurements, with “tiles” only half a mile to a mile and a half (1 to 3 kilometers) across, will reveal far more detail than scientists now have about the freeze/thaw status of the land surface.

Why is greater detail needed? In the Arctic, the timing of the spring thaw can vary considerably within a small area. Because the returning sun is low on the horizon, the shadowed north side of a hill may remain icy many days after plants have started growing again on the sunlit south side. Those early spring weeks are critical in the short Arctic growing season. “Once the vegetation thaws, boom! Photosynthesis takes off,” Kimball explained. “You can get your highest rates of photosynthesis within a few weeks after the thaw, and a later thaw can mean much lower vegetation growth for the season. We need observations at what I call the landscape level to more precisely monitor those patterns and changes.”

During photosynthesis, plants absorb carbon dioxide from the air. The carbon stays in their wood, roots and leaves, and when they die, most of it remains in the soil. That makes undisturbed forests what scientists call carbon sinks — places that remove carbon from the atmosphere. Longer unfrozen seasons in the Arctic give forests more time to grow and spread, increasing the extent of the carbon sink.

On the other hand, climate warming has increased the occurrence of droughts and wildfires in the Arctic. A burning forest spews enormous amounts of carbon into the atmosphere; in scientific terms, it is a carbon source. Thus, global climate change is causing the northern forests both to absorb and to release more carbon.

With so little Arctic data to crunch, models of Arctic land processes do not agree on which of these trends is prevailing, much less what the future could hold. Lack of consensus does not indicate fundamental disagreements on the physical processes involved, according to JPL scientist Josh Fisher, a member of the SMAP algorithm team. The problem is that, at present, if you put the Arctic’s emitted carbon on one side of a scale and absorbed carbon on the other, the scales would almost balance. “The source/sink balance is usually close to zero, and it’s very easy to get on the wrong side of the zero,” he said. Yet the wrong answer on this fundamental question can cascade into a chain of wrong answers in the course of a model simulation. SMAP’s fine-scale observations have the potential to improve modelers’ understanding of both today’s situation and how it may change in the future.

This spring, SMAP will spin up in time to track the spring thaw in the boreal forest with the detail scientists need — as Princess Anna in “Frozen” says, “For the first time in forever.”

For more about SMAP, visit:

http://smap.jpl.nasa.gov/

JPL is managed for NASA by the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

U-Texas & NASA: Study Sees New Threat to East Antarctic Ice

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IMG_3677
This is the East Antarctic coastline. Icebergs are highlighted by the sunlight, and the open ocean appears black. Image credit: NASA

Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin, NASA and other research organizations have discovered two seafloor troughs that could allow warm ocean water to reach the base of Totten Glacier, East Antarctica’s largest and most rapidly thinning glacier. The discovery likely explains the glacier’s extreme thinning and raises concern about its impact on sea level rise.

The result, published in the journal Nature Geoscience today, March 16, has global implications because the ice flowing through Totten Glacier alone is equivalent to the entire volume of the more widely studied West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If Totten Glacier were to collapse completely, global sea levels would rise by at least 11 feet (3.3 meters). As in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, complete collapse of Totten Glacier may take centuries, although the timing of retreat in both places is the subject of intensive research.

This image shows the previously unknown landscape beneath Totten Glacier. Orange arrows point to seafloor troughs deep enough to allow warm water to enter beneath the floating ice. Image credit: UTA/Jamin Greenbaum
This image shows the previously unknown landscape beneath Totten Glacier. Orange arrows point to seafloor troughs deep enough to allow warm water to enter beneath the floating ice. Image credit: UTA/Jamin Greenbaum

East Antarctica has appeared to be stable compared with the rapidly melting western side of the continent. The new finding shows that “Totten Glacier and the East Antarctic Ice Sheet are a much more interesting and dynamic part of the sea level rise story than we’d previously thought,” said co-author Dustin Schroeder, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California. Schroeder helped analyze data from an ice-penetrating radar to demonstrate that ocean water could access the glacier through the newfound troughs.

In some areas of the ocean surrounding Antarctica, warm water can be found below cooler water because it is saltier, and therefore heavier, than the shallower water. Seafloor valleys that connect this deep warm water to the coast can especially compromise glaciers, but this process had previously been seen only under the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Deep warm water had been observed seaward of Totten Glacier, but there was no evidence that it could compromise coastal ice.

The newly discovered troughs are deep enough to give the deep warm water access to the huge cavity under the glacier. The deeper of the two troughs extends from the ocean to the underside of Totten Glacier in an area not previously known to be floating.

The data for this study were gathered as part of the International Collaboration for Exploration of the

The Totten Glacier Catchment (outlined in blue) is a collection basin for ice and snow that flows into the ocean through Totten Glacier alone. The catchment is estimated to contain enough frozen water to raise global sea level by at least 11 feet (3.3 meters). Image credit: Australian Antarctic Division
The Totten Glacier Catchment (outlined in blue) is a collection basin for ice and snow that flows into the ocean through Totten Glacier alone. The catchment is estimated to contain enough frozen water to raise global sea level by at least 11 feet (3.3 meters). Image credit: Australian Antarctic Division

Cryosphere through Airborne Profiling (ICECAP) project, which, together with the East Antarctic component of NASA’s Operation IceBridge mission, made the first comprehensive survey of the Totten Glacier Ice Shelf and nearby regions between 2008 and 2012. Other coauthors of the study come from research organizations and universities in Australia, France and England.

For more information on the new study, see:

http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/news/2015/03/east-antarctica-melting-could-be-explained-by-oceanic-gateways

To learn more about Operation IceBridge and ICECAP, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/icebridge/

and

http://www.ig.utexas.edu/research/projects/icecap/

The paper is available at:

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2388.html